Jhapa 5: KP vs Balen

SP Upreti

Jhapa 5 has ultimately become the epicenter of March 5 House of Representative election in Nepal with the popular rapper-turned former mayor of Kathmandu traveling all the way to challenge CPN UML chair KP Sharma Oli, for whom the constituency has been a safe haven. Let’s look into some of the facts and figures of what promises to be a battle royal.

Whom does the previous election statistics support?

Oli, a seasoned politician who is personally and deeply connected to the people of Jhapa 5, is contesting for the eight times from the constituency. He has emerged victorious six times out of his seven attempts from the same ground.

Oli’s only loss was in the first election of Constituent Assembly held in 2008. Even then his margin of loss was very narrow, only 1,200 votes. His loss was largely attributed to the political influence of the recent Maoist war and second people’s movement.

The upcoming election is taking place in the aftermath of the recent Gen-Z movement, during which Oli was leading the country as the Prime Minister.

Some have accused Oli of being responsibility for the unrest which he has repeatedly denied. Oli has even recorded his written statement to the commission setup to investigate the incidents of September 8 and 9 and denied issuing order to open fire at protestors.

Balen, on the other hand, is very popular among the youths. His choice of Jhapa 5 out of 165 constituencies in the country speaks of his confidence and courage to challenge established figure like Oli.

Balen is the poster candidate of RSP that has championed him as the future Prime Minister of the country. In that sense it could be a possible battle of future Prime Minister of the country in Jhapa 5.

For the moment, everyone is watching Jhapa 5 with keen interest with every single activity of the candidates closely monitored.  

What Does Data Say?

Election outcomes are sometimes circumstantial like the 2008 CA election when Oli his own backyard lost by 1,200 votes.

The current scenario might look similar given the recent Gen-Z movement and wave of change ushered in but whether it will bring the same impact as the 10-year long Maoist ‘People’s War’ is to be seen once the result is announced.    

Oli’s past, present and future engagement at the popular level in Jhapa 5 is a clear advantage against Balen who is desperately maintains the portfolio now by engaging with the locals. So, this can also be branded as the tussle of a local vs tourist candidate.

In the last House of Representatives election held in 2022, Oli secured victory with resounding 52, 319 votes, while his nearest rival received 23,743 votes. Oli’s winning margin in itself was 28, 576 votes. RSP candidate, Suresh Kumar Pokharel, received only 11,748 votes.

However, the RSP party obtained 18,205 votes in the Proportional Representation system the same year. This could be encouraging for Balen, who being the toast of the younger generation, can prove that able candidate can turn the tides.     

Another interesting fact of this election is that almost all political parties are contesting independently without a prior coalition, including UML, nearly after about a decade. In the previous election, UML had a coalition with RPP in Jhapa-5.

The constituency comprises Damak Municipality, Kamal Rural Municipality, Gauradaha Municipality Ward No. 1 to 8 and Gaurigunj Rural Municipality Ward No. 3, 4, and 5. Of the total 163,379 voters registered, approximately 10,000 have been added during the latest voters’ registration process. 

Around one third of the population belongs to indigenous communities, whose votes could play a decisive role in the election. At the moment, mayor of Damak is from Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), the mayor and deputy mayor of Gaurdadaha from UML and Kamal Rural municipality is led by the Nepali Congress.

The candidates of Harka Sampang’s Shram Sanskriti Party, Samir Tamang and Nepal Communist Party’s Ranjit Tamang can woe the voters from indigenous communities, which can play significant roles to shift the election results.

Incomplete major projects in the constituency, including Damak View Tower and Nepal-China Industrial Park that have not been operational till date. Locals might remember the projects as unfulfilled promises of the past. 

Flashback of the Last Election

KP Oli had won with a wider margin among the leaders in the election of 2022 with 52,319 votes, while Congress candidate Khagendra Pandav Adhikari secured 23,743 votes and RSP received only 11,748 votes. In proportional representation, UML secured 35,872 votes, RSP came second with 18,205 votes and Congress received 16,859 votes.

According to the Election Commission, nearly 55 percentages of voters in the constituency are of 18-45 years’ age group and 45 percentages aged above 45 years, indicating that young voters determine the victory.

The competition promises a lot; grand, intense and equally watched.